HONOLULU — The National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Oahu early Monday, Sept. 7, 2026, after the forecast track for Category 3 Hurricane Lowell shifted farther east toward the western Hawaiian Islands, according to Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number 46 and Discussion Number 46.

At 5:00 a.m. HST (1500 UTC), Lowell’s center was near 17.5°N, 162.6°W — about 375 miles southwest of Lihue and 405 miles southwest of Honolulu — moving north-northeast near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds remained 115 mph with higher gusts; minimum central pressure was estimated at 950 mb. Lowell remains a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Discussion 46 held the initial intensity at 100 kt and noted that guidance had shifted about 30 nautical miles east of the prior forecast, bringing the hurricane closer to the western Hawaiian Islands. On the new track, the core is forecast to pass near or just west of Niihau tonight and early Tuesday. Forecasters said any further eastward adjustment could require a Tropical Storm Warning for Oahu later today or this afternoon.

Watches and warnings: A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, and for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals. The new Tropical Storm Watch covers Oahu. Hurricane conditions are expected in Kauai County beginning this afternoon or evening; tropical storm conditions are possible on Oahu beginning this afternoon.

Hazards: Additional rainfall of 6 to 10 inches is forecast for Kauai (local maxima to 16 inches), 4 to 8 inches for the Big Island (isolated 12), and 4 to 8 inches for Oahu and Maui County (isolated 10) — enough for significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially in Kauai County and parts of the Big Island. Storm surge could reach 2–4 feet above ground in Kauai County (highest along Kauai’s south coast and Niihau) and up to 1 foot on Oahu. Several tornadoes are possible near Kauai and Niihau this afternoon through tonight, with a few possible across the remainder of the islands. Large damaging waves and life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected across exposed shores.

Gradual weakening is forecast through Tuesday, but Lowell is still expected to remain a hurricane as it passes near the Hawaiian Islands. This piece updates Insanity Developing’s earlier Monday coverage of rainbands and the Kauai County Hurricane Warning with the new Oahu Tropical Storm Watch from Advisory 46.

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