MAGDEBURG, Germany — Germany’s far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is projected to win Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt state election by a historic margin, exit polls showed Sept. 6, 2026 — far ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats — though it remains unclear whether the party can form a government in the eastern state of about 2.1 million people.

An initial ARD/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen exit poll cited by The Guardian put the AfD at 44.4%, with the CDU trailing on about 18.4%. BBC News reported projections of more than 44% for the AfD and about 18.2% for the CDU. Votes were still being counted Sunday evening; figures below are exit-poll and early projections, not final certified results.

Guardian-reported early evening projections also showed Die Linke around 9.3%, the Greens about 8.7%, and the Social Democrats (SPD) about 8.4%. The smaller left-populist BSW appeared to have reached the 5% parliamentary threshold, according to The Guardian; that outcome could affect whether the AfD approaches an absolute majority of seats. BBC reporting said the AfD was heading toward roughly 39 seats in an 83-seat state parliament as projections firmed up.

Turnout was unusually high. The Guardian put participation at a record 76.5%; the BBC cited an estimated 78%.

Siegmund claims history; Weidel cites a mandate

Addressing supporters, AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund said, “We have made history in this country,” according to The Guardian (BBC rendered a similar line as “We have made history in this state”). Speaking to public broadcaster ARD, Siegmund said his party was ready to reach out to democratic forces seeking political change: “We extend a hand to all democratic forces that wish to pursue better policies.” He also said themes such as migration and domestic security were not up for debate, The Guardian reported.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel called the outcome a “clear government mandate” and said the party would talk with other parties about how the AfD could rule, per The Guardian. Siegmund and joint national leaders Weidel and Tino Chrupalla celebrated as the projections landed, BBC News reported.

Siegmund had campaigned aiming for roughly 45% or more and had refused to govern with any other party, seeking an absolute majority alone, both outlets reported. That stance collides with Germany’s longstanding Brandmauer — a firewall under which mainstream parties refuse coalition with the AfD.

CDU defeat; firewall holds

CDU general secretary Franziska Hoppermann called the result “bitter” and a “defeat overall” for the Christian Democrats, The Guardian reported, while ruling out any coalition discussion with the AfD. State CDU leader Sven Schulze conceded the night was “extremely tough,” according to the BBC. Germany’s SPD called the outcome “truly dramatic”; national SPD leader Lars Klingbeil described it as a “signal to Berlin,” the BBC said.

Saxony-Anhalt’s AfD branch is classified as “right-wing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence service — a label the party and Siegmund reject. No far-right party has won control of a German state since World War II; whether Sunday’s projected win becomes governing power still depends on final seat math and the firewall.

About 1.7 million people were eligible to vote in the east-central state, which the CDU has led in government since 2002. Final pre-election polls had shown the AfD nearer 40–41%; the party’s 2021 result in the state was 23.7%, The Guardian noted.

Sources