Herrera leads TX-23 poll 47–41 as Democrats pile on and the seat stays vacant

SAN ANTONIO — Brandon Herrera is up six points on Democrat Katy Padilla Stout in Texas’s 23rd Congressional District, according to a Remington Research Group survey of 572 likely voters taken July 25–28, 2026 (margin of error ±4.3 percent). The poll, reported in mid-to-late August by The Truth About Guns and Bearing Arms, puts Herrera at 47 percent, Padilla Stout at 41 percent, with 10 percent undecided and 2 percent picking someone else.

That is a clearer cushion than the last public look at the race. A Democrat-aligned Public Policy Polling survey in March had Herrera ahead only 42–40. If both snapshots are roughly right, Herrera has stretched his lead while Padilla Stout has barely moved in five months — and he is still running below 50 percent in a district Republicans usually hold.

New poll was just released!

We are up by 6 points, leading my opponent 47 to 41.

Even with all of the slander and boldface lies her campaign has been throwing around, the people of Texas aren’t falling for it. They’re rejecting DSA radicals like her in favor of common sense.
— Brandon Herrera (@TheAKGuy) August 19, 2026

House Democrats noticed. On Aug. 5, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added TX-23 to its target list, hoping to flip the west Texas border seat left vacant when former Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned April 14 amid an affair scandal, the San Antonio Express-News reported. DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene recycled the party’s attack file — “extremism, violence, and antisemitic rhetoric” — and framed the open seat as “squarely in play.” Herrera’s reply at a Gun Owners of America event was blunt: he never wanted this kind of office until Democrats started mining his YouTube archive.

Padilla Stout’s answer was the performer line. After the DCCC announcement she called Herrera someone who “built his career on chaos and clicks,” cast herself as the public servant for children and families, and said Washington would not win the race for her. Herrera has spent months posting receipts against Padilla Stout’s claims — including district geography and Big Bend talking points — and treating her attack ads as slander. Voters can judge the paper trail for themselves.

The money gap is not subtle. Ballotpedia’s 2026 cycle totals (drawn from FEC/OpenSecrets data and still incomplete) show Herrera at about $1.94 million raised and roughly $1.64 million spent, against Padilla Stout’s about $485,000 raised and $314,000 spent. Express-News tallied April–June alone at $435,657 for Herrera’s campaign and victory committees versus $248,928 for Padilla Stout. House Speaker Mike Johnson also headlined a San Antonio fundraiser for Herrera last month, per the Express-News.

The seat itself is still empty. Gonzales resigned effective April 14. The Republican runoff was canceled and Herrera became the GOP nominee; President Donald Trump endorsed him March 11 after Gonzales quit, the Texas Tribune reported. Gov. Greg Abbott has never ordered a special election. Texas’s calendar treats the 78th day before Nov. 3 — Aug. 17 — as the last day to put a special on the general-election ballot. That date has passed with no TX-23 order, leaving roughly 800,000 people from San Antonio to El Paso without a House member until January unless Abbott somehow invents a later path. Padilla Stout has hammered the vacancy as an emergency. Herrera has not been the one pressing Abbott for a special; he has focused public heat on federal response to the New World screwworm outbreak in the district, the Houston Chronicle noted in June.

Nov. 3 is now the main event: Herrera (R) versus Padilla Stout (D), with independent Ben Mendoza also on the Ballotpedia general-election list. A six-point Remington lead, a cash edge, and a Trump endorsement do not make a R+leaning border seat automatic — especially with national Democrats writing checks and old YouTube clips on loop. They do explain why Padilla Stout is the one asking voters to ignore the scoreboard.