German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called Sunday’s state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern a “disaster” for his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) after exit polls showed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) ahead and his party collapsing into the low single digits — then vowed to stay on and push economic reforms anyway.

Public-broadcaster exit polls published as voting closed put AfD first in the northeastern state at about 37–38%, with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) close behind around 35.5–36.5%, according to POLITICO (ARD), the BBC (ZDF/ARD), and CNN. Merz’s CDU was projected at roughly 5–5.5% — barely clearing the parliamentary threshold and, outlets noted, the party’s worst result in a state election since World War II.

“We can’t sugarcoat the results in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. It’s a disaster,” Merz said after the exit polls, per POLITICO. He still rejected talk of stepping aside: Germany needs reforms delivered with “backbone, steadfastness, and patience,” he said, framing those reforms as “the antidote to the poison of authoritarianism.”

The Mecklenburg-Vorpommern projection lands two weeks after AfD’s crushing win in Saxony-Anhalt. Mainstream parties still refuse to govern with AfD, so an SPD-led coalition remains the likeliest path to keep the far right out of the statehouse even if AfD finishes first — a firewall Merz’s collapse makes harder to ignore.

Berlin flips left while AfD keeps climbing

In Berlin’s simultaneous state parliament election, exit polls put the left-wing Die Linke first at roughly 24.5–26%, ahead of Merz’s CDU around 20%, with Greens, AfD, and SPD trailing, per ARD figures cited by POLITICO, the BBC, and CNN. AfD was projected around the mid-teens in the capital — well below its eastern peaks, but up from about 9% in Berlin’s 2023 vote, CNN noted.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel told CNN her party is “clearly the new people’s party in Germany,” calling Merz “strongly damaged.” CDU watch-party crowds in Berlin groaned as both sets of numbers rolled, the BBC and CNN reported.

Merz has been chancellor for about 16 months. State leaders recently backed him publicly even as approval ratings sagged and chatter of a mid-term “chancellor swap” grew. Sunday’s twin votes do not automatically topple him — but a postwar-low CDU wipeout in the northeast, an AfD repeat win, and a Die Linke lead in Berlin all land on the same ledger: voters are punishing the governing center while the parties on Merz’s right and left keep eating his share.

Dated Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026: exit polls, not final certified tallies. Final counts were still coming in as networks reported.

Sources